The Real Serious Actual Truth About Last Night (JM)

Sigh, I will write more about this later, but NO ONE had a good night. This night meant nothing at all. Obama has four favorable states coming up, which will mean very little in terms of delegate split, then some big states for Hillary. This will be decided by a) party functionaries; b) seating MI and FL; c) randomness. It's terrible for the party and is going be mean and bloody. Neither side is going to back down and there is no reason to expect them to do so. This is so so so bad for the Dems as the Republicans will begin smelling blood in the water and come together around McCain.

But seriously, enough spin, I've had it, everyone seems to be saying good night for Clinton, good night for Obama. It was neither, it was a good night for McCain (and a super good night for the Huck). Also this is proof of what terrible systems we have, in overall popular vote Hillary dominated Obama last night... and yet somehow he get more delegates out of this. We need to look good and hard at some serious electoral reform.

Bad Signs for Camp Hillary (JM)

Well pretty bad news for Camp Hillary on multiple fronts. Exits in Georgia are real bad, with Barack scoring over 40 percent of white voters and make strong in roads in to the 40-60 demographic.

Also pretty damning are early exit polls, which give Barack a lot of strength in the northeast, including close leads in NJ, CT and MA. Obama also seems to have held NY to a ten point spread. Exit polls are notoriously inaccurate, but as evidence goes none of it is good for Hillary with the exception of a small lead in CA. Obama also has a slight exit poll lead in MO, which is also considered a bellwether state. But again, exit polls were very very wrong in NH, so who knows...

The final somewhat damning piece of evidence is the Intrade's political market, which had Hillary's winning the nomination at 51 percent at the beginning of the day is now at 40 percent. Often it is cited that these types of markets are very good at picking up trends. However, it was wrong at predicting both IA and NH, so note of caution.

Keep in mind these are just things to talk about until we get more information, but it does not look good. I would also point out the Chris Matthews just called Bob Menendez, Sir Edmund Burke for not agreeing to pledge his superdelegate vote for whomever the people of New Jersey voted. Ahh... at least there'd be some hilarity. Also! This just in sources, including Talking Points Memo and Drudge, show exit polls are not that bad for Mittmentum! Now that's what I call Hope!

Super Tuesday, Which Is Like My Super Bowl, Which Is Weird Since The Super Bowl Is Also Like My Super Bowl (JM)

This is going to be a very quick preview as I have much to do in anticipation of tonight, I expect to post several updates throughout the day:

Republicans: I am actually a bit more boom than bust on Mittmentum this morning. I think he'll take California (if he doesn't it's the end of the road for him), obviously Mass, and a few of the crazy conservative states out west. I think Huck is going to be almost a no show picking up very few states beyond his own Arkansas. If that happens it opens up at least one of the big southern states for Mittmentum. I am going to put Georgia in the win column and Tennessee as a maybe for the Mittmeister, if this happens he walks out of Super Tuesday head held high and the conservative machine right behind him. I think McCain is taking his victory lap a couple of days too early, he'll win the day, but not the nomination today and that's bad news in his camp.

Democrats: Where everyone thinks this is going to be close, I do not. This is going to be a pretty decisive day for Hillary. Will it end it? Doubtful. But it may leave Obama on the ropes. My reasoning behind this all comes out of Nevada. Obama was totally disorganized, he is not prepared for the floor organization and street fight it takes to win these things. Hillary's campaign is an army, they've done it before, they know how to get voters to polls and how to pick up caucuses. Iowa was the exception because the candidate himself was able to spend a year selling himself to everyone, a national day is different and surrogates matter much more. Hillary's got the staff and the experience and will win almost every single state that is being called close, especially California. I am not going to go state by state, but I predict Hillary to pick up between 100-120 more delegates than Obama tonight. If it's close to the high end of the range that could be the ballgames.

Final Thoughts: Huck will drop out of the race tonight, Chris Matthews will get angry and sad about Obama and refer to him as a Byzantine general and Mittmentum will give an amazing speech that mentions Reagan at least five times. Enjoy the fun everyone!