Rumors of Her Death Are Greatly Exaggerated (JM)

Oh Slate delegate counter... you have caused so very many problems for me, including eating up an inordinate amount of time I could, say, have been doing something social instead of playing with slide bars on my computer. Yes, you make Hillary's future pretty bleak as Jonathan Alter pointed out. However, you also do not count Florida and Michigan.

As it stands FL and MI would give Hillary a 90 delegate advantage, which is more than enough to give her a real shot going forward. However, it seems unlikely these delegates will be seated, despite the many good reasons they ought to be. Instead we might very well see new primaries at the end of May or beginning of June. There is no reason to believe that these both won't be incredibly strong Hillary states. Perhaps not a 90 delegate spread, but a strong spread nonetheless. I see no way in which anyone can argue that this is not a fair solution (I look forward to several inane e-mails that say "rules are rules").

This will put the delegate count extraordinarily close. At that point I am perfectly comfortable letting the superdelegates decide the election. I mean to be fair, I trust party elders far more than I trust less than ten percent of Iowa voters. Caucuses are undemocratic, superdelegates are undemocratic, it's really all the same. It's a whole new ballgame now, and that's nothing but good for the Democratic Party.

Why Michigan and Florida Should Absolutely Count (JM)

In Florida 1.5 million people cast ballots to help choose their candidate for the presidency. In Michigan, 600,000 people have spoken. Now the time had come and people are calling for compromise on these states between the Obama Camp and the Clinton Camp. This is absolutely the wrong way to look at this, in fact the interests of the respective candidates are secondary to the only interest that ought to matter: the voters in Michigan and Florida.

Florida is the much clearer picture. All the candidates were on the ballot and Obama had commercials running in the state, while HRC did not. 1.5 million people came out to vote, made their votes clear and had an ample chance to hear from both of these megacandidates. The complaint from the Obama side is that they didn't get to go in and meet with people, which is his candidate's strength. This would be a marginally valid argument if it weren't for two things: 1) Hillary's strength (and probably a far more important presidential strength) is debating, a platform Obama seems quite keen to deny Hillary as more and more states come up; 2) Obama's concerns about how he gets to present himself are not nearly paramount in this discussion. Given the information they had the people of Florida went out to vote and deserve to have a say in our next president. This is particularly true given that it is an important swing state.

Michigan is a bit murkier. Hillary being the only candidate on the ballot kind of muddies the water a bit until you ask yourself this question: Why was Obama still on the Florida ballot? The answer is that he thought he had a chance to do well there. Largely speaking pulling off the Michigan ballot was a tactical move Obama and Edwards got behind, because Michigan happened to have been a very favorable climate for Hillary. Here's a video of Chuck Todd discussing this very possibility. Again 600,000 people came out to vote for the president and should not be disenfranchised because their party leaders were arrogant and silly. I would, however, offer a compromise in the case of Michigan. Grant Obama the delegates that would be attributed to Undecided. The truth is that his campaign was largely behind the Undecided movement and he takes a great advantage out of getting all undecided delegates because assuredly Edwards would have strongly cut in to his numbers with his ties to labor.

The only other compromise I've heard discussed is holding caucuses, which is a terrible idea for a number of reasons. I have often, in this space, discussed how wretched the caucus system is: it distorts voting opinions, it's proportioned bizarrely and it is often representative of population size so small that the results would be statistically insignificant if this were a laboratory experiment. But how much worse is it when you count the fact that over two million people have already voted. Imagine the outrage if we hold caucuses and 200,000 people invalidate the results of two million. This is essentially what Obama supporters are arguing for, and it's absurd. Finally, it's just too expensive, both states have said they cannot afford to run an additional caucus (now I recognize that this could be political hardball, but still it's a factor).

Is this a perfect situation? No. But the distortions that currently exist in the Florida and Michigan voting is nothing compared to the distortion that would exist in the national voting if we left their voices out altogether. I would suggest that the first goal of a democratic system of voting is to count as many voices as possible. I would further suggest if the party chooses not to count them that we might see some real blowback in the general election. These are states McCain can compete in, particularly Florida where the Wilford Brimley endorsement will play large. For the sake of the party and the people, Michigan and Florida must be counted.