Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Rumors of Her Death Are Greatly Exaggerated (JM)

Oh Slate delegate counter... you have caused so very many problems for me, including eating up an inordinate amount of time I could, say, have been doing something social instead of playing with slide bars on my computer. Yes, you make Hillary's future pretty bleak as Jonathan Alter pointed out. However, you also do not count Florida and Michigan.

As it stands FL and MI would give Hillary a 90 delegate advantage, which is more than enough to give her a real shot going forward. However, it seems unlikely these delegates will be seated, despite the many good reasons they ought to be. Instead we might very well see new primaries at the end of May or beginning of June. There is no reason to believe that these both won't be incredibly strong Hillary states. Perhaps not a 90 delegate spread, but a strong spread nonetheless. I see no way in which anyone can argue that this is not a fair solution (I look forward to several inane e-mails that say "rules are rules").

This will put the delegate count extraordinarily close. At that point I am perfectly comfortable letting the superdelegates decide the election. I mean to be fair, I trust party elders far more than I trust less than ten percent of Iowa voters. Caucuses are undemocratic, superdelegates are undemocratic, it's really all the same. It's a whole new ballgame now, and that's nothing but good for the Democratic Party.

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