The Angriest Thing I Have Ever Written (JM)

Hot damn, I though I was cynical, but apparently the GOP has me beat by a freakin' country mile. The RNC last night was notable for many insane things, perhaps the most insane being the media's inability to not be wowed by shiny objects.

Let's start with our good friend Mittmentum, who gave in an awesome speech in some sort of alternative history novel in which Gore won the 2000 election and Washington was dominated by the liberals for the last 8 years. He serious railed against liberal tax and spend Washington, conveniently ignoring the fact the Washington has been in the hands of the GOP for the past two terms. Explicitly more hilarious was Romney attacking East Coast Elites. The head of Bain Capital, from Massachusetts, is attacking east coast elitism, I don't even begin to understand how he thought he could get away with this. The temerity of this speech was amazing, in line with all of the other speeches last night, as the GOP seemed under the impression that if they said it in prime time it would suddenly just become true. And they're right, it might, if the media refuses to challenge this utter nonsense.

Then cameth the Huck. Look, it's hard not to like Huck. He seems nice, he's funny, snarky and pretty smart. I hate the religious side of his politics, but I think in person I would get along with him real well. I appreciated the fact that he was the one person who took a single moment to be gracious to Obama about his accomplishments. That said, two huge quarrels with his speech. The first was all his talk about small government. Who are you fooling Huck? You love government! You want to have government's babies. I saw you and government out back canoodling under the old elm tree. All kidding aside, Huck really is an economic populist, it's why he's gained traction in areas the GOP hasn't, it's his unique strength and he should stick with it. If he wants to win in 2012 he's not going to out market downhome country boy, Mitt Romney. Seriously, I think the two of them, for a larf, switched speeches, Huck talking about small government, Mittmentum about the Eastern Elite. But then Huck made a Madonna joke, so it was definitely him. My other issue with Huckamonster was his flat out lie about Sarah Palin getting more votes for mayor of Wasilla than Biden got for POTUS. Let's assume we are comparing only this time around, not 1988. The most votes Palin ever got in Wasilla was 650, Biden got over 50,000 against a much tougher field of candidates. These are not even comparable, and in so far as they are this analysis of the comparison was a flat out lie.

Rudy! Rudy! Rudy! I don't have too much to say specifically about Rudy's speech. He's a buffoon, pure and simple. The man has jumped the shark so hard that it's comparable to when the Bundy's got that extra kid only to find out it had all been a dream. I would say his the political equivalent of The Golden Palace, but I would never insult the memory of Estelle Getty like that. He's basically the Mighty Morphin Power Rangers post-Kimberly. Anyway, my point is that I am going to take this time to focus on two things that were present throughout all the GOP talking points. The first is this batshit crazy notion that executive experience is the most important. Attempting to ban books in Wasilla, AK is waaaaaaay more important to being a President of the United States than being a Senator for 35 years, meeting with leaders of the world, ushering through critical legislation to protect women, managing critical Supreme Court confirmation hearings and being responsible to voters of your state. I love to strawman, but Rudy and the GOP loves decisionmaking so much that their logic easily extends to the idea that Peter Boyt, manager of the Barnstable, MA Kinko's, is more qualified to be president than Joe Biden. Well, I am sorry I forgot, Peter Boyt is probably a member of the East Coast establishment. Ugh, it's just so stupid and cynical to think that people would believe this, hells I think we are all aware that the other extension of this argument is that Palin is more qualified than McCain. Oh wait! McCain once led in the military. Sigh, I don't know what pisses me off more, the fact that the GOP has the cojones to make these arguments or that fact that they might work.

The second thing I just don't get is the derision that the Republicans seem to have for community organizing. It's amazing, they act like this is the only thing on Obama's resume, rather than the start to a notable and respectable career. I think it's awesome that Obama chose to work in his community helping people, rather than selling out. But here's the bigger reason the Republicans have such utter contempt for community organization, it's their job to tell the people what to think. Community organization is based on the principle of giving voice to the people, and having the bottom control the top. Republican principles are based on telling the people what to think and believe, letting market forces (read as, the will of those with the most money) determine how communities are shaped, and using wedge social issues to get people to vote and act against their local interest. They don't respect community organization because they don't want to see communities get organized. Yet another in a litany of reasons to believe that the Republicans are so insanely out of touch with the American people.

So finally we get to Palin, the "Real Housewife of Juneau County"*. I have never in my life disliked a politician more than I do her. I think putting herself in the spotlight while her daughter is dealing with her personal issues was reprehensible, but using a Down's Syndrome baby as a campaign prop? It's nearly abusive. I mean at one point Cindy McCain was holding the baby. It's flat out disgusting (and I really don't get disgusted by anything). She spoke well, she read off a teleprompter (one that had the word nuclear spelled phonetically "new-clear") and she got off some reasonable funny lines. What she didn't do is talk about policy or give any of us a single reason to believe that she is actually qualified to step in as President of the United States. There is not a single person in this country who cannot imagine any of the three other people in this race sitting in the Oval Office. They may not be your first choice, but Obama, Biden and McCain all make sense sitting behind that desk, but Palin? My God, the unknown of that is simply terrifying. There is no chalking this up to some sort of misogyny, I think Hillary would have been an amazing president (I'd have put her in there before anyone but Biden). No this is simply about the fact that Palin has no clue on national domestic issues or international affairs. She's also a flat out liar. She claims to have said "no thanks" on the "Bridge to Nowhere" when she was demonstrably in favor of it, she hired lobbying firms to get earmarks for her town, she's embroiled in several scandals and is all for small government except for intrusions in to your bedrooms and libraries.

She's mean-spirited and not ready, but with all the press applause for her speech delivery last night you wouldn't know it. This is woman who's voice dripped with derision for the press. And they ate it up. The media often talks about how they're the voice of the people, this is perhaps their biggest opportunity to show it's true. They must demand interviews with Palin now, with serious magazines, papers and shows. She can't get away with interviews with People and Hannity, she has be held accountable by the mainstream media, asked questions that demand knowledge and deep understanding. It's also on Biden, I love Joe, but he can't let the "play nice' attitude of the Obama campaign effect you too much. He has to get out there in the debate and simply womp her in to the ground. He needs to demands specifics and talking about intricate plans both domestically and abroad. The word Afghanistan was mentioned not once last night, the Dems need to talk about that more.

In the end we are left with this. The Republicans have squandered the last eight years, killing a surplus created by Bill Clinton. They have poorly fought wars, mismanaged the economy, eroded civil rights and generally made a mockery of ethical governance. Now they are simply pretend that it didn't happen. They are arguing two people who are political and have done little to create substantive reform (or in McCain's case moved away from the actual good things he has done) are the real standard bearers of change. If we can't win now, we will never win. Sighing about the politics of cynicism won't do it, it's simply not enough. We need to be specific, point out every lie, spin or misnomer they put out there. The American people deserve better than this, but we need to show them what there real choice is. If we can do that and they still opt for this disturbing brand of image-based, elitist domination on the part of the Republicans, well then my God maybe we do deserve McCain/Palin.

*Patent pending, Bravo reality TV coming to a White House near you.

Fun With Push Polling (JM)

With some time off from hardcore politics we’ve decided to play a game. We all remember how George W. Bush beat McCain for the nomination. He created an exceedingly clever push poll in which voters were asked, "Would you be more or less likely to vote for John McCain...if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?" This really changed the scope of the campaign, winning George W. Bush the nomination and leading us to eight years of bad luck.

So in that spirit, AOTG would like present our suggestions for push poll campaigns against various political luminaries:

1) Hillary Clinton: “Would it change your likelihood of voting for Hillary Clinton if you knew that while in the White House she was had a reputation for being willing to eat anything for five bucks? (She once made fifty dollars off of Begala for eating several batches of Mike Espy’s moustache hair.)

2) Barack Obama: “Would you be more or less likely to vote for Barack Obama, if you knew he fathered a black child?”

3) Mitt Romney: “If you were made aware of Mitt Romney’s intention to nominate only werewolves to the Supreme Court would this change your opinion of his fitness to run for office?”

4) Chuck Schumer: “Rumors are now swirling that Chuck Schumer has hatched a plot with the Free Masons to trick people into believing Jesus wasn't real, does this change your opinion of him?”

5) Fred Thompson: “If you knew his only goal as President would be to create a dramedy about what life would be like if Biff from Back to the Future were the President of the United States, would this effect your decision to vote for him?”

6) Dick Cheney: “Apparently everything you’ve ever read about him is completely true, does this effect how you feel about him as a leader?”

7) Tom Harkin: “Some think that Tom Harkin is a vampire, given the fact that he is never seen outside during the day, his overuse of sunscreen, and his thick Transylvanian accent. Would this make you less likely to vote for him, more likely to vote for him, or no change?”

8) Nancy Pelosi: “Observers have heard Nancy Pelosi say that she, ‘Just didn’t get the deal with Seinfeld’, does this make it more or less likely to vote for her?”

9) Fred Flintstone: “Would you be more or less likely to vote for Senator Flintstone if you knew that he kept animals enslaved in house and showered in the excretions of a Woolly Mammoth?”

10) Mumm-ra: “If you were to find out that Mumm-ra was a displaced former Egyptian god, hellbent on destroying all of the Thundercats, would you be more or less likely to vote for him?”

(Special thanks to Ted for help on this post)

Great Moments in Campaign History (JM)

In an interview that is a worthwhile read unto itself, Meagan McCain points out the turning point in her father's campaign:

Meghan recalls the day when actor Wilford Brimley, he of the Quaker Oats ads, called to offer his support. An operative got off the phone and grandly announced to the room, “We’ve got Brimley!” The phrase, she says, became a rallying cry for the campaign.

I am just unsure what to say about this. It is another opportunity to throw up a picture of the Brim, and another opportunity to reflect on just how old John McCain is, but really it also an opportunity to imagine McCain's political team standing around and chanting, "We've got Brimley, yes we do, we've got Brimley how 'bout you?!" Mitt must be so sad he lost to this...

The Hope That Dare Not Speak Its Name... Mittmentum! (JM)

Could it be? Might it be? Please, God in heaven, should you have mercy upon our gentle souls, please let John McCain pick Mittmentum as his VP candidate. We here at AOTG would be amongst the happiest people who have ever existed. Seriously though, I suspect he would be an excellent choice for McCain. In trying out for the role today, Romney was an utter demon of an attack dog. An excerpt (via Politico):

"I think he is the better match-up for Senator McCain because the public recognizes just how inexperienced he is," Romney said. "With Senator Clinton there is some confusion in perception that somehow being there while her husband was president made her a foreign policy-national security experienced person. She is not. She doesn't have any more experience, really, of a significant nature than Barack Obama does. But in Barack Obama's case, people recognize this guy was a state senator and before that he was a community activist. He has been a United States senator for a short, short period of time. He is in no significant way qualified to lead the country at a time of war, to lead the country out of an economic challenge. This is not a person who can stand up to Senator McCain.”

To make his case, Romney employed a canine metaphor.

Listening to Obama and Clinton discuss their national security credentials, Romney said, is akin to "listening to two chihuahuas argue about which is the biggest dog."

"When it comes to national security, John McCain is the big dog, and they are the chihuahuas," he said.

This is some grade-A attack material. Also Mittmentum immediately boosts McCain's biggest weakness, economics. Additionally, Romney came to be well loved by conservatives, is young and seemingly fit to hold the presidency. This would be a pretty smart pick for McCain if he can get over the animosity, this would also be a smart pick for us, because Mitt is so darn funny. And maybe, just maybe, we'll get to see Tagg again, and that would be just swell.

Barnyard Commandos (JM)

I bet you're waiting for some clever tie-in to politics and you're like: "Oh what a witty late 80's reference, I bet he's going to eviscerate some political argument while discussing pop culture all at the same. You know, like Maureen Dowd, but talented." Well you're so wrong, this post is solely and completely about Barnyard Commandos, nothing more nothing less.

So anyway in 1989 a few geniuses got together and said, we need a television show about farm animals. Another guy said, well we have a script about toxic waste effecting a small town... Some synergistic moments later and history was born.

The R.A.M.S., led by Sargent Wooly Pullover fought against the P.O.R.K.S. of General Hamfat Lardo. There was fierce and intense battling; there was a Pork-A-Pult. But it was never super clear what the conflict was all about, nor the underlying political ethos of these respective military forces. Sometimes I would just make up my own little background. For instance, I am pretty sure that the R.A.M.S. were an Anarcho-syndicalist militia which formed to protect unionized farm workers who were being oppressed by corporate America. The P.O.R.K.S. were the hired mercenaries of the financial conglomerate that secretly controls all the branches of the U.S. government.

The moral of the story is: Toys were way cooler back in 1989. The second moral is that the video tape is an episode entitled: Apple Calypse Now. Apples are quite tangential to farm animals, but the pun is adorable and does evoke a certain sense of impeding doom/cider. I hope you enjoyed that little tour back to 1989, I know I did. In conclusion, Mittmentum. Thank you.

Huckaboom?! (Dennis)

OK so on the Democratic side, Obama gave a thrashing to Hillary in three states today: WA, LA, NE and by larger than expected margins in WA and NE.

But the bigger story could be on the Republican side, where Mike Huckabee looks like he's going to beat McCain in Kansas and LA and is close to McCain (2 points) in WA. Now, maybe it's just me, but it sure doesn't look like the electorate is following the media storyline of "Republicans Unifying Behind McCain." This race might not be over.

Now you might ask: "But doesn't McCain have an insurmountable lead?"

True if you look at it this way:

McCain: 714
Huckleberry: 217

But as Kos points out, you could look at it this way:

McCain:714
Huckleberry+Mittmentum: 503

Now, while Huckabee and McCain have been buddy buddy, what if HuckleMittmentum reach a delegate total to capture the Republican nomination? The only thing John McCain would be willing to offer is the Vice Presidency to Huck, but what if Mitt decides to throw his delegates to Huck in exchange for the VP slot? Huck would have to take that, right?

Well, I wouldn't worry too much, McCainiacs, it's still an uphill climb for the Huck. I mean it's not like the remaining primaries favor Huck's working class charm and evangelical roots...

Feb: Virginia(remember, rural Republican Virginia, not Democratic Northern VA), Maryland, DC

March: Texas, Mississippi, Ohio, Vermont

April: Pennsylvania (Pittsburgh in the west, Philadelphia in the east, and Alabama in the middle, guess where all the Republicans are?)

May: North Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana, Nebraska, Idaho, Oregon

June: South Dakota, New Mexico


Ruh-oh!

Mittsupersaddness (JM)

Mitt is dropping out of the race at CPAC conference today. I am too sad to write more on this, but rest assured, there will be an Elegy for Mitt. He apparently doesn't want to get in the way of the party... All I can say is: Supreme Court Justice Mitt Romney has a pretty good ring to it.

Bad Signs for Camp Hillary (JM)

Well pretty bad news for Camp Hillary on multiple fronts. Exits in Georgia are real bad, with Barack scoring over 40 percent of white voters and make strong in roads in to the 40-60 demographic.

Also pretty damning are early exit polls, which give Barack a lot of strength in the northeast, including close leads in NJ, CT and MA. Obama also seems to have held NY to a ten point spread. Exit polls are notoriously inaccurate, but as evidence goes none of it is good for Hillary with the exception of a small lead in CA. Obama also has a slight exit poll lead in MO, which is also considered a bellwether state. But again, exit polls were very very wrong in NH, so who knows...

The final somewhat damning piece of evidence is the Intrade's political market, which had Hillary's winning the nomination at 51 percent at the beginning of the day is now at 40 percent. Often it is cited that these types of markets are very good at picking up trends. However, it was wrong at predicting both IA and NH, so note of caution.

Keep in mind these are just things to talk about until we get more information, but it does not look good. I would also point out the Chris Matthews just called Bob Menendez, Sir Edmund Burke for not agreeing to pledge his superdelegate vote for whomever the people of New Jersey voted. Ahh... at least there'd be some hilarity. Also! This just in sources, including Talking Points Memo and Drudge, show exit polls are not that bad for Mittmentum! Now that's what I call Hope!

There is No Difference and Mittsadness (JM)

First of all, there is actually no difference whatsoever between our blog and this: Becker and Posner Blog

I suspect that they might make their way in to these posts some time soon.

Also sadness, Mitt lost WV, which he was solidly winning until the second ballot when all of McCain and Paul's supports swung to Huck. So Huck takes the first sport of the day.

Super Tuesday, Which Is Like My Super Bowl, Which Is Weird Since The Super Bowl Is Also Like My Super Bowl (JM)

This is going to be a very quick preview as I have much to do in anticipation of tonight, I expect to post several updates throughout the day:

Republicans: I am actually a bit more boom than bust on Mittmentum this morning. I think he'll take California (if he doesn't it's the end of the road for him), obviously Mass, and a few of the crazy conservative states out west. I think Huck is going to be almost a no show picking up very few states beyond his own Arkansas. If that happens it opens up at least one of the big southern states for Mittmentum. I am going to put Georgia in the win column and Tennessee as a maybe for the Mittmeister, if this happens he walks out of Super Tuesday head held high and the conservative machine right behind him. I think McCain is taking his victory lap a couple of days too early, he'll win the day, but not the nomination today and that's bad news in his camp.

Democrats: Where everyone thinks this is going to be close, I do not. This is going to be a pretty decisive day for Hillary. Will it end it? Doubtful. But it may leave Obama on the ropes. My reasoning behind this all comes out of Nevada. Obama was totally disorganized, he is not prepared for the floor organization and street fight it takes to win these things. Hillary's campaign is an army, they've done it before, they know how to get voters to polls and how to pick up caucuses. Iowa was the exception because the candidate himself was able to spend a year selling himself to everyone, a national day is different and surrogates matter much more. Hillary's got the staff and the experience and will win almost every single state that is being called close, especially California. I am not going to go state by state, but I predict Hillary to pick up between 100-120 more delegates than Obama tonight. If it's close to the high end of the range that could be the ballgames.

Final Thoughts: Huck will drop out of the race tonight, Chris Matthews will get angry and sad about Obama and refer to him as a Byzantine general and Mittmentum will give an amazing speech that mentions Reagan at least five times. Enjoy the fun everyone!

Mittmentum Redux (JM)

I have a backlog of posts to make, but all I can say is 17-14, NY Giants, what a game... and guess who is, as we speak, cutting a large check written out to Mittmentum. Answer: Dennis "My Team Cheats and is Dreamy and Still Can't Win" Reardon. Enjoy America, hopefully this Christmas we can give you the gift of Mitt.

Mitt-Gate!! and other Mitt items (Dennis)

Break in at Romney headquarters!? Is Carmen Sandiego attempting to steal Mittmentum?

The Globe reports:

"'There is no indication this was politically motivated,' said Eric Fehrnstrom, a Romney spokesman.

One of the men who was arrested -- Michael J. Sauer, 30 -- identified himself as a political independent on his voter registration, public records show. The second suspect, Daniel J. Bradley, 28, is not registered to vote in Massachusetts, records show. Bradley has six outstanding warrants for crimes that include possession of narcotics and breaking and entering, police said."

Ah phew, well at least they were caught. But do we really believe this "not politically motived" stuff. I mean, of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world, they had to walk into Romney's. Also, the statement by Fehrstrom could be just pandering to Republican primary-goers who enjoy random explanations for crimes.

The Boston Herald reports:

"At the time authorities said a thief forced open a first-floor window, ripping a third-floor door off its hinges before making off with eight laptops, a television and a set of golf clubs."

A set of golf clubs? It's Massachusetts in January! Are the golf clubs magical?Is the heat generated by Mittmentum so white hot that it allows people in the Romney campaign to golf during the Massachusetts winter? Ah, the many questions campaign '08 has generated.

One more question generated by campaign '08....why is Mitt Romney running this ad?

Mi Padre, Mitt

An ad in Spanish? From the guy who wants everyone to learn English and has castigated everyone who didn't take the hardest of hard lines on immigration? Romney just reminds me of the generic evil candidate from the movies who is nice and charming but will do anything to beat protagonist candidate X. The next step is ads supporting and harshly criticizing the same position in different states.

The Mittastic Mittmentum Super Bowl Bet (JM)

For those of you new to this blog, which is all of you since this is a fairly new blog, you may not be aware that the authors happen to be fairly rabid Giants and Pats fans. Dennis and I have discussed making a fairly large wager in which if the Giants win he'd have to give money to Hillary and if the Pats win I would have to give the money to Obamatronics. Neither of us was willing to do this, worried about having any effect on helping the other's horse. However, we did find something we could agree on, we both think it would be just the bee's knees if Mitt Romney were to capture the Republican nomination. So that said, Dennis and I have agreed to donate a fairly substantial amount of money to Mittmentum, Dennis if the Giants should win and I if the Pats should prevail.