Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Super Tuesday, Which Is Like My Super Bowl, Which Is Weird Since The Super Bowl Is Also Like My Super Bowl (JM)

This is going to be a very quick preview as I have much to do in anticipation of tonight, I expect to post several updates throughout the day:

Republicans: I am actually a bit more boom than bust on Mittmentum this morning. I think he'll take California (if he doesn't it's the end of the road for him), obviously Mass, and a few of the crazy conservative states out west. I think Huck is going to be almost a no show picking up very few states beyond his own Arkansas. If that happens it opens up at least one of the big southern states for Mittmentum. I am going to put Georgia in the win column and Tennessee as a maybe for the Mittmeister, if this happens he walks out of Super Tuesday head held high and the conservative machine right behind him. I think McCain is taking his victory lap a couple of days too early, he'll win the day, but not the nomination today and that's bad news in his camp.

Democrats: Where everyone thinks this is going to be close, I do not. This is going to be a pretty decisive day for Hillary. Will it end it? Doubtful. But it may leave Obama on the ropes. My reasoning behind this all comes out of Nevada. Obama was totally disorganized, he is not prepared for the floor organization and street fight it takes to win these things. Hillary's campaign is an army, they've done it before, they know how to get voters to polls and how to pick up caucuses. Iowa was the exception because the candidate himself was able to spend a year selling himself to everyone, a national day is different and surrogates matter much more. Hillary's got the staff and the experience and will win almost every single state that is being called close, especially California. I am not going to go state by state, but I predict Hillary to pick up between 100-120 more delegates than Obama tonight. If it's close to the high end of the range that could be the ballgames.

Final Thoughts: Huck will drop out of the race tonight, Chris Matthews will get angry and sad about Obama and refer to him as a Byzantine general and Mittmentum will give an amazing speech that mentions Reagan at least five times. Enjoy the fun everyone!


tara said...

Obama is definitely going to win! He's got the momentum. We don't four more years of Billary!!!

Jonathan said...

Sigh... cogent analysis.