Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Bad Signs for Camp Hillary (JM)

Well pretty bad news for Camp Hillary on multiple fronts. Exits in Georgia are real bad, with Barack scoring over 40 percent of white voters and make strong in roads in to the 40-60 demographic.

Also pretty damning are early exit polls, which give Barack a lot of strength in the northeast, including close leads in NJ, CT and MA. Obama also seems to have held NY to a ten point spread. Exit polls are notoriously inaccurate, but as evidence goes none of it is good for Hillary with the exception of a small lead in CA. Obama also has a slight exit poll lead in MO, which is also considered a bellwether state. But again, exit polls were very very wrong in NH, so who knows...

The final somewhat damning piece of evidence is the Intrade's political market, which had Hillary's winning the nomination at 51 percent at the beginning of the day is now at 40 percent. Often it is cited that these types of markets are very good at picking up trends. However, it was wrong at predicting both IA and NH, so note of caution.

Keep in mind these are just things to talk about until we get more information, but it does not look good. I would also point out the Chris Matthews just called Bob Menendez, Sir Edmund Burke for not agreeing to pledge his superdelegate vote for whomever the people of New Jersey voted. Ahh... at least there'd be some hilarity. Also! This just in sources, including Talking Points Memo and Drudge, show exit polls are not that bad for Mittmentum! Now that's what I call Hope!

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